The real estate regulation has lowered the demand for construction machinery. Since April 15, the central government has successively issued a series of strict real estate regulation policies. The real estate industry has entered a downward trajectory, and the volume of transactions has shrunk, which will affect all industries at all levels of economic activity and capital flow. The construction machinery products closely related to real estate will inevitably be adversely affected. The strict control of real estate credit will also lower the market's valuation of the company from the aspect of capital flow, In the future, the performance of construction machinery will still be good, but the market expectations for construction machinery are bleak.
The infrastructure FAI will still play a stimulating role. The construction machinery continues to grow. The FAI growth rate in 2009 reached an unprecedented 30.5%. The construction machinery did not grow at a corresponding rate. According to our model calculation, the FAI in 2009 will still play a follow-up role in 10 years. If the FAI is maintained at about 26% in 10 years, the total growth rate of construction machinery in 2010 will reach 17.4%. In the first quarter, construction machinery increased by more than 50% year on year, in line with our expectations. However, due to the influence of real estate regulation, the future prospects of construction machinery have declined, and the dynamic PE of mainstream construction machinery companies in 2010 has basically reached 10-15 times of PE, reaching a historical low.
The sales of concrete machinery was booming, but the real estate regulation lowered the future expectation of concrete machinery. The sales of concrete machinery continued to grow at a high speed in the first quarter. The new policy of 4.15-4.17 severely hit the prospects of real estate, and drove the expectation of related concrete machinery to decline. The large-scale construction of indemnificatory housing has partially boosted the demand for concrete machinery, but it is far from being compared with the huge scale of commercial housing. Concrete machinery companies need a long time to get rid of the constraints of real estate expectations.
The new real estate policy affects the local government's land price income, and then affects the infrastructure investment. About 33% of the local government's financial income comes from the land transfer fee. The new real estate policy causes the local government to sell the land unsmooth. The decline of local government income may restrict the capital source of infrastructure investment. However, the central infrastructure investment may increase the infrastructure investment according to the situation, so the future prospects of shoveling machinery and lifting machinery will also decline, But the amplitude is lower than that of concrete machinery.
The castings and forgings in the heavy machinery industry maintain long-term stable growth. China's economic growth has stimulated the rapid growth of China's electricity demand. The development of low-carbon energy wind power, hydropower and nuclear power industries has a low starting point, low base and rapid growth. In particular, the growth potential, speed and import substitution space of nuclear power industry are huge, and future orders are guaranteed for a long time. We expect that heavy casting and forging equipment will still maintain an annual growth rate of 20% - 30%. The metallurgical heavy machinery industry is in a period of decline and adjustment due to the impact of backward capacity reduction.
The machine tool industry has passed the trough, which is the upstream industry of other machinery industries, and relatively lagged behind. In the first quarter of 2010, small and medium-sized machine tools experienced explosive growth. Under the background of the recovery of the machinery industry, we have reason to believe that the machine tool industry has passed the trough and entered the recovery channel.
Machinery industry: turning to the field of "one light and one heavy" in the future
The securities industry believes that the rebound in the growth rate of fixed asset investment brought about by the economic stimulus policy in 2009 will be unsustainable in 2010, and exports are still recovering. Since 2003, the rapid expansion of the capacity of the machinery industry itself has led to a substantial increase in the supply of most sub-industries, and the trend of structural change is inevitable.
Under this situation, the securities suggest that the investment strategy of the machinery industry is divided into two main lines: major equipment manufacturing industry and new strategic industry. In the major equipment manufacturing industry, select the leading enterprises with monopoly advantages and in the process of industrial upgrading and structural optimization. In the new strategic industry, select the growth enterprises with light assets and high technology and high growth.
Large castings and forgings are the cornerstone of major equipment manufacturing industry. Nuclear power and wind power equipment have a strong demand for large castings and forgings, and the international market also has potential, which is expected to become a new growth point in addition to the traditional business of the heavy industry. In the next 2-3 years, the market size of large castings and forgings will be about 30-40 billion yuan, and China's first and second heavy equipment will be recommended.
The construction of high-speed railway drives the demand for equipment, and the domestic investment in fixed assets enters the peak period. The demand for multiple units is huge, and the number of vehicles and equipment increases accordingly. The 36 non-public sectors of the economy have also opened a channel for the involvement of private funds, providing potential financial support for the subsequent planning expansion. Highlight CSR and CNR.
The new strategic industries characterized by light assets, high technology and high growth have great potential. China's equipment manufacturing industry is in a critical period of upgrading and transformation. Independent innovation is the way to obtain sustainable development momentum. Enterprises with high technology and high growth potential have greater opportunities.